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PHOENIX, Jan. 30, 2006 - Real Estate Investment Brokerage Company, the nation's largest real estate investment brokerage firm, recently released its National Apartment Research Report for 2006, which indicates the Phoenix apartment market will benefit from increased employment opportunities and strong in-migration.
Also included in the report is the firm's annual National Apartment Index (NAI), a snapshot analysis that ranks 42 apartment markets based on a series of 12-month forward-looking supply and demand indicators. Phoenix gains three places this year to No. 11.
"Phoenix is expected to be one of the better-performing markets in the nation in 2006," comments David A. Wetta,
managing director of and regional manager of the Phoenix office. "Phoenix was one of the nation's leaders in the number of jobs created in 2005, which will translate into another year of substantial net in-migration in 2006. This, along with the rapid rise in home prices last year and sustained job growth, supports our expectations for lower vacancy and healthy rent growth."
Following are some of the most significant aspects of the Phoenix Apartment Research Report:
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Asking rents are forecast to rise 3.2 percent to $735 per month.
Concessions will continue to burn off, allowing effective rents to rise by 6.4 percent to $688 per month.
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Vacancy in the Phoenix metro area will decline 70 basis points to 7.4 percent in 2006.
Renter demand continues to grow, bolstered by rapid population growth and declining housing affordability.
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Phoenix employers will add over 71,000 positions in 2006, an increase of 4 percent.
Most jobs being created are in the leisure and hospitality, and the professional and business services sectors.
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Apartment completions will total 5,300 units this year, a 13 percent decrease from 2005.
The outlying areas of Northwest Phoenix, Mesa/Gilbert and Chandler/Ahwatukee will receive the bulk of new apartment units that are coming online this year.
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In addition to the opportunistic plays on the fringes of the metro where vacancies are highest, some investors will focus on in-city properties.
Areas of growing investor interest include Central and East Phoenix, where developable land is limited and future competition will mainly come from high-cost redevelopment projects.
Orange County (Calif.) claimed the top spot in the 2006 NAI, surpassing last year's leader, Riverside-San Bernardino (California's Inland Empire). The region's median home price of more than $700,000 makes Orange County one of the least affordable housing markets in the country, which will keep renter demand at high levels. Fort Lauderdale occupies the No. 2 position due to robust job growth and low vacancy. Las Vegas moved up one spot to No. 3, supported by strong condo conversion activity and declining vacancy. San Diego fell two places to No. 4, and New York City-Manhattan climbed four positions to complete the top five. Typically the bottom MSAs in the NAI are markets with above-average vacancy or weak labor markets.
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